IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.2	#213
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	80.8	#10
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.0	#94

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.2	#337

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.7%	16.9%	8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	14.3	15.1

.500 or above	36.0%	61.0%	30.8%
.500 or above in Conference	72.9%	84.1%	70.7%
Conference Champion	12.7%	19.6%	11.3%
Last Place in Conference	2.4%	1.0%	2.7%

First Four	2.4%	2.2%	2.5%
First Round	8.5%	16.1%	7.0%
Second Round	0.6%	1.7%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 17.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 3.0	0.1 - 3.0
Quad 1b	0.2 - 2.2	0.3 - 5.1
Quad 2	0.7 - 3.1	1.0 - 8.3
Quad 3	2.6 - 4.3	3.6 - 12.5
Quad 4	9.5 - 3.4	13.1 - 15.9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2018	107	@ Dayton	L	78-85	17%
Nov 09, 2018	57	@ Penn St.	L	75-87	8%
Nov 17, 2018	138	@ Wright St.	L	77-82	22%
Nov 20, 2018	163	Southern Miss	L	79-82	39%
Nov 21, 2018	146	Jacksonville St.	L	76-80	36%
Nov 27, 2018	16	@ Florida	L	73-90	4%
Nov 29, 2018	352	Florida A&M	W	87-72	94%
Dec 01, 2018	232	@ Charleston Southern	W	80-79	42%
Dec 11, 2018	68	@ Minnesota	L	81-92	11%
Dec 13, 2018	226	@ Florida International	W	83-82	43%
Dec 15, 2018	232	Charleston Southern	W	80-79	64%
Dec 19, 2018	15	@ Florida St.	L	80-97	4%
Dec 29, 2018	13	@ Auburn	L	81-99	4%
Jan 05, 2019	340	North Alabama	W	84-74	87%
Jan 09, 2019	136	@ Lipscomb	L	89-94	23%
Jan 12, 2019	179	Florida Gulf Coast	L	86-88	53%
Jan 16, 2019	337	@ Stetson	W	89-80	70%
Jan 19, 2019	155	@ Liberty	L	74-78	29%
Jan 21, 2019	228	NJIT	W	80-79	63%
Jan 24, 2019	289	Jacksonville	W	85-81	71%
Jan 27, 2019	179	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	86-88	33%
Jan 30, 2019	338	@ Kennesaw St.	W	86-77	70%
Feb 06, 2019	136	Lipscomb	L	89-94	42%
Feb 09, 2019	340	@ North Alabama	W	84-74	72%
Feb 13, 2019	338	Kennesaw St.	W	86-77	84%
Feb 16, 2019	228	@ NJIT	W	80-79	42%
Feb 20, 2019	289	@ Jacksonville	W	85-81	53%
Feb 23, 2019	155	Liberty	L	74-78	47%
Feb 26, 2019	337	Stetson	W	89-80	84%
Projected Record						13.1 - 15.9	9.2 - 6.8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.6	2.5	4.2	3.3	1.6	0.5		12.7	1st
2nd									0.0	0.2	1.6	4.7	5.7	2.3	0.3				14.8	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.3	3.1	6.8	5.4	1.5	0.1					17.2	3rd
4th							0.0	0.9	4.1	7.2	4.6	0.9	0.0						17.8	4th
5th						0.1	1.3	4.6	6.0	3.1	0.4	0.0							15.4	5th
6th				0.0	0.2	1.3	4.1	4.3	1.6	0.2									11.7	6th
7th				0.2	1.2	2.4	2.0	0.4	0.0										6.4	7th
8th			0.2	0.6	1.1	0.7	0.1	0.0											2.7	8th
9th	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0													1.2	9th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.6	1.3	2.7	4.6	7.5	10.2	12.2	13.8	13.4	11.6	9.7	6.7	3.6	1.6	0.5			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
15-1	100.0%	1.6		1.5	0.1
14-2	91.8%	3.3		2.5	0.8	0.0
13-3	63.4%	4.2		2.1	1.8	0.3	0.0
12-4	25.4%	2.5		0.7	1.3	0.4	0.0
11-5	5.4%	0.6		0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.1%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	12.7%	12.7		7.4	4.2	1.0	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.5%		65.2%	65.2%		12.9									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.2
15-1	1.6%		51.7%	51.7%	0.0%	13.6									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.8		0.1%
14-2	3.6%		37.5%	37.5%	0.0%	14.1										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	2.2		0.1%
13-3	6.7%		26.4%	26.4%	0.0%	14.5													0.1	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.4	4.9		0.0%
12-4	9.7%		17.6%	17.6%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8	8.0
11-5	11.6%		12.6%	12.6%		15.5													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	10.1
10-6	13.4%		8.7%	8.7%		15.7														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.9	12.2
9-7	13.8%		4.4%	4.4%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.5	13.2
8-8	12.2%		2.2%	2.2%		15.9																0.0	0.2	11.9
7-9	10.2%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.0	0.1	10.1
6-10	7.5%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	7.4
5-11	4.6%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	4.5
4-12	2.7%																							2.7
3-13	1.3%																							1.3
2-14	0.6%																							0.6
1-15	0.1%																							0.1
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		9.7%	9.7%	0.0%	14.9									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.7	2.5	4.1	90.3		0.0%